University of Tartu researchers are developing a novel disaster preparedness assessment system

One of the key cornerstones of disaster risk management is risk analysis to base decisions on how to mitigate disasters or prepare for hazardous events that are likely to be unavoidable. In the SYNERGIES project, researchers from the Risk & Resilience Research Group of the University of Tartu are developing a novel system for planning activities to improve the readiness of the crisis management system for various threat scenarios, based on an important part of risk analysis: the assessment of social vulnerability. For testing the initial versions of the disaster preparedness assessment and capacity building system, the SYNERGIES team held workshops in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, on 19 June 2024 and in Tartu, Estonia, on 23 August 2024.

The development of a novel system is inspired by the consideration that a thorough analysis of societal vulnerabilities in disaster scenarios is a basis for defining the most pressing gaps in existing preparedness measures and identifying improvements to avoid vulnerabilities. Worst-case scenario-based workshops in the Netherlands and Estonia explored who would be affected and how severely, in order to guide a more focused reflection on the existing capabilities and gaps to meet societal preparedness needs. The SYNERGIES disaster preparedness assessment system provides guidance on how to build preparedness, paying particular attention to:

•    Well-coordinated disaster preparedness and response efforts 
•    Effective risk management 
•    Resilient systems and critical services
•    Accessible and understandable risk and crisis information
•    Engagement and empowerment of representatives of diverse societies

In the Netherlands, workshop participants from Gezamenlijke Brandweer, the Red Cross, the Safety Region and the municipality explored the scenario of a flood in the Rotterdam-Rijnmond region. As the water level rises, the dike is breached and a residential area is flooded. Additional complications arise from language barriers and the dispersion of hazardous substances from the nearby oil refinery. Participants identified sources of vulnerability, including direct hazards and risks from service disruptions and communication failures, leading to poisoning, injuries, damaged housing and mental health distress. Immediate evacuation and critical support were considered essential for individuals with pre-existing health risks, such as mobility difficulties. In addition, those who had lost housing or other resources as a result of the situation needed tailored support from the authorities.

In order to address the identified vulnerabilities, the Rotterdam stakeholders identified the most pressing capacity-building needs related to communication and engagement of representatives of diverse societies. Adapting crisis information systems to the media habits of individuals and ensuring that information is understandable to diverse audiences. The second most critical area identified was engaging the public by improving their disaster response skills or competencies; involving them in local emergency planning; and supporting their practical preparedness for disaster impacts, such as acquiring emergency supplies.

In Estonia, a similar scenario-based workshop was conducted to define capacity-building needs for the scenario of mass evacuation due to military attack. Among stakeholders representing rescue, social and medical services from different levels, the definition of clear roles was identified as the most pressing shortcoming in well-coordinated disaster preparedness and response efforts to reduce social vulnerabilities.

The disaster preparedness assessment system is being further developed based on lessons learned from workshops in Estonia and the Netherlands, and it is expected to be completed in 2026. The development is being carried out by the Risk and Resilience Research Group at the University of Tartu, including Professor in Sociology of Risk and Resilience Kati Orru, Associate Professor of Communication Studies Sten Hansson, and Junior Research Fellow in Crisis Sociology Kristi Nero. Preparedness assessment system is being created in collaboration with Webgenesys, Italy. 

Author: Kati Orru, University of Tartu